i have one more programming note for you as we reflect on this very busy year. we have our full year ender special on "the beat" tomorrow. it has some of the best moments of the year. a look at what bob mueller taught donald trump with analysis and a collection of some of the worst dad jokes i've told on air. my producers made us make a reel. i'm not joking but it is about jokes. that's tomorrow 6:00 p.m. eastern. please check it out. our show's over. "hardball" with chris matthews starts now. flipping on flynn? let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm steve kornacki in for chris matthews who's on vacation. the president's lawyers are responding to the washington post report that the president may ultimately turn on his former national security

adviser, michael flynn, who pleaded guilty to lying to the fbi earlier this month. as the most senior former trump adviser who's known to be cooperating with investigators, flynn could potentially help prosecutors land an even bigger fish in their ongoing probe and that could possibly pose a significant threat to the president himself. now as the post revealed yesterday, if flynn does ultimately implicate the president or others around him, the president's legal team is apparently set to portray one of trump's former closest advisers as a liar who's out to save his own neck, referring to flynn's admitted crime. one person who helped craft this strategy, he said himself, he's a lawyer. today the president's lawyers are pushing back though. in a statement to msnbc news, john dowd said this is complete nonsense and more fake news. this has disturbed the president and others that the mueller

investigation would soon be winding down. however, there are signs to the contrary. axios is reporting that, quote, members of robert mueller's team are reaching out to former republican national committee staff who were familiar with the digital campaign. the goal is to determine if the joint effort was related to the activities of russian trolls and bots aimed at affecting the american electorate. ty cobb said all of the interviews with the special team are over. however, former colleague said i would be shocked if he was done with the inner circle. all of these indictments, guilty pleas and interviews could be round one. joining me is jonathan swan with acti axios. thanks to all of you for joining. barry, the resident former prosecutor here, let me start with you. you have this report from the washington post saying that if

michael flynn ultimately says president trump or someone immediately around him committed wrongdoing, the strategy will be to say that flynn is lying. you have trump's lawyer now out there saying this is garbage, this is fake news. what do you make of that denial? do you take that as this strategy is off the table? how do you interpret that? >> well, the strategy really is defense counsel 101. there's no adage in the law that when you have the law on your side -- when you have the facts on your side you pound on the facts. when you have neither you pound on the table. what it sounds to me is if this evide effort to discredit general flynn is a very basic defense tactic. you know, when lawyers make representations to their client that certain things will end by a certain time, the only lawyers in the team that knows anything about when something is going to end are the prosecutors because they're the ones who are

collecting the evidence, they're compiling their witness statements and they're doing their work in front of the grand jury and i think it's very risky if you're a defense counsel and you tell your client that an investigation is going to end by a certain time certain. >> jonathan berry makes the case that in one sense this is lawyering 101. it certainly makes sense to me. if someone goes and accuses you of a crime you don't think you committed or you don't want people to know you committed you say the person is lying. the lawyer would come out and say that report is fake news, what do you make of that? >> right. well, i mean, they have to. they're not going to say, oh, actually, yes, we have this great plan to undercut michael flynn, which we're going to deviously roll out over the next six weeks. the interesting thing to me is when that story ran ty cobb declined to comment. so he had an opportunity to deny it in the story and he didn't, but just sort of pulling back, i think a much more interesting

point is that it's a question that a lot of people close to the situation are asking themselves is why did mueller allow for this prosecutorial vulnerability? because that's what it is. he could have charged flynn on any number of things and he chose to make it this one thing lying to the fbi which really does give a very big free kick to the opposition that can say, well, he lied about this, he could lie -- how can you trust anything he has to say? so it actually is a bit of vulnerability for the prosecution. >> julia, in terms of the timing here, i think one of the questions this raises is are we looking at just sort of a basic potential legal strategy, a contingency scenario that the trump team is preparing for? or is there a more specific reason why they're now talking about this apparently? has something happened since that plea a few weeks ago in exchange they're thinking about flynn's role in all of this? >> well, i can't -- i can't speak to the change in their thinking, but i think it fits overall with trump's broader

strategy, which is any time he disagrees with somebody or he doesn't like the criticism leveled at him he calls it fake news and he attacks the credibility bearer of that news. he's already gone after mike flynn. ty cobb, one of the president's lawyers, the day of the plea bargain, mike flynn's plea bargain, he referred in his statement to mike flynn as an obama administration official already trying to put distance between them. so i think this is maybe the least surprising news we've seen about the mueller investigation. the other thing i'd say is that this is part of a parcel of, you know, the broader republican attacks on mueller, on the integrity of the people working on his team possibly preparing the base and in general the american public to not believe and to question the credibility of any indictments or conclusions that might come out of that investigation. >> as you mentioned, there is a precedent if this were to be the direction this ultimately goes,

if the president and his team were ultimately to be out there calling flynn a liar, it wouldn't be the first time he was trying to distance himself from it. you can take a look at how the president defended paul manafort last february and then watch what he said in november after manafort's indictment. >> that's mr. manafort who's, by the way, a respected man. and he said that he has absolutely nothing to do and never has with russia. and he said that very forcefully. his statement. paul was not there very long. what people don't mention, paul was not there for a very long period of time. >> what was it that convinced you that he had to be let go? >> well, i think we found out something about he may be involved with all -- with certain nations and i don't even know exactly what it was in particular. >> trump also once praised his former adviser george papadopoulos as an excellent guy.

that was in march of 2016. take a listen. >> george papadopoulos, he's an oil energy consultant, excellent guy. >> then after papadopoulos began cooperating with investigators president trump said, quote, few people knew the young low level volunteer named george who has already proven to be a liar. barry, let me ask you playing this out here because we're on sort of contingency speculation here, but if this does go to a scenario where flynn is saying if trump committed wrongdoing, somebody immediately around trump committed wrongdoing, the vulnerability he's talking about where flynn has admitted to lying to the fbi, if the trump argument with flynn implicating him, this guy is an admitted liar, he's cut some kind of deal with prosecutors to save himself, to save his son, he'll say anything to get off the hook, he'll say anything to get off lightly. strategically, legally how much success is a strategy like that

likely to have? >> that type of strategy would probably be more successful if it were in a vacuum by itself, but what we have in this particular instance as you just showed, we have the president being his own worst enemy. when the president vouchs for general flynn even on the day he was terminating him as a good guy, as an honorable person, he's really his own worst enemy when we try to affect the credibility of general flynn. the thing that bothers me most about this line or this strategy, if we forget for a moment republicans, democrats, what this really is is an assault on our institution of justice. long after these folks are gone, i think i saw a gallup poll that says 30% of the people still believe president obama was born in another country. this kind of assault upon the integrity of the department of justice, the justice system as a whole is going to be an inches

city tieuesdayal wound there ma be people sitting on the jury years removed from now who remember this time frame and remember how this president attacked the credibility of one of the great law enforcement entities and agencies in the world. so that really bothers me more than just this president and these individuals. i think there is a much larger issue at play here than really the personalities we're talking about today. >> jonathan, you are well sourced within this administration. we've played the -- and we showed the -- some of the examples there of the folks around trump who have been talking up the idea that this probe is not long for this world. it's going to wrap up soon. there have been some predictions here that haven't borne out. what's your current understanding of what's happening in trump land of where 24 is heading, the time line, their exposure here? what's your sense of that?

>> well, you have to separate ty cobb, you know, the legal team from the people inside the white house who really know nothing and they're just listening to the legal team with varying degrees of skepticism and you have people outside many of whom are more pessimistic. i spoke to ty cobb and the way he laid it out was he said, yeah, the investigation will continue. he uses the word silos. he says there are two silos, the flynn silo and the manafort silo. they will continue. the white house, that will all be wrapped up and he's moved the time line. he initially said thanksgiving and the end of the year. the last time i spoke to ty cobb he said early next year. i can tell you once you go one ring out from that there is a lot of skepticism that this will be cleanly wrapped up with a bow by the ind end of january. >> julia, the other wild card is put yourself in the shoes of michael flynn. his brother on twitter the other day saying, mr. president, pardon my brother. you had trump until now at least

publicly and still publicly trump's posture has been friendly and generous. now you're reading, hey, look, they're worried you're going to say something and they're worried they go after you. what does this have to do with flynn's strategy, calculation, thinking, how he approaches it? >> again, i think it would be purely speculative. if i'm michael flynn and i'm watching this guy throw me under the bus more i might talk more. the other thing is we have to keep in mind the issue of michael flynn is an important one because if you recall, one of the reasons that trump -- or shortly before trump fired the fbi director jim comey he said he pressured him to go easy on michael flynn so michael flynn also holds the key to a very important aspect of president trump and whether or not he obstructed justice. >> all right. julia, barry, jonathan, great insight from all of you.

thank you for joining us. coming up, roy moore's last stand. the alabama republican last ditch effort to throw out the results even claiming he had taken a polygraph test to show the allegations of sexual misconduct against him are false. plus, trump closing out the year with a twitter feud with vanity fair and hillary clinton. trump's battles with the media to congress to those behind the russia probe. and we're going to take a look at the year ahead with republicans and democrats on capitol hill. can republicans get another big win under their belts after that tax plan and will democrats see a wave election in 2018 or are they at risk of overplaying their hand. and the "hardball" team is here to tell me something i don't know. this is "hardball" where the action is. had that...urance comy wait! hold it... hold it boys... there's supposed to be three of you... where's your brother? where's your brother? hey, where's charlie?

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welcome back to "hardball." roy moore isn't quite the distant memory some republicans were hoping for, at least yet. earlier today alabama officials rejected a lawsuit brought by the former republican candidate alleging that voter fraud took place in this month's special election citing what he claimed were election experts, moore's campaign claimed that, quote, with a reasonable degree of statistical and mathematical certainty election fraud occurred. as a result they called on the secretary of state to delay certification until a thorough investigation is completed. janet porter, roy moore's spokeswoman, had this warning for the secretary of state in alabama and that state's governor ahead of the certification. >> secretary of state, i'd like to get to the bottom of it no

matter who it is that i supported. here's the thing that governor ivy needs to know. by the way, if they can steal the election from roy moore, governor ivy, they can steal from you. >> republican alabama secretary of state jon merrill was undeterred at 2:10 eastern this afternoon the election board certified doug jones as the official winner of the election. i am looking forward to going to work for the people of alabama in the new year. i will be an independent voice and work to find common ground with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle and fight to make our country a better place of all. jones is to be sworn in by vice president mike pence next week. despite all of that, roy moore still refuses to concede. in a statement he says i have stood for the truth about god and the constitution. i have no regrets. to god be the glory. for more i'm joined by kyle whitmeyer.

and the former republican congressman from florida, dave jolly. kyle on the ground in alabama, let me start with you. there wasn't much -- there didn't seem to be anything of these claims of election fraud. election officials, republicans dismissed them out of hand. the election is over as far as they're concerned. i'm curious about the politics in alabama. he was able to win an election. he's refusing to concede. his spokesman said they're making a big mistake here. are republican voters prepared to move on from this election or are they going to be like roy moore and say, hey, this thing was stolen? >> i think this has been a great demonstration of why roy moore was unfit for this office to begin with and i think that a lot of republican voters who might have been on the fence, maybe even some who voted for roy moore in this election are going to change their minds about him because of the way that he's played this thing out. >> look, it was -- it was a

narrow win for doug jones but it was not like, you know, something we saw in virginia where it's going to come down to a coin flip. this was one-half percent difference and it wasn't, you know, while that might look close, it's not close enough to trigger a recount. the only thing they had were all these bogus claims of voter fraud. it just looked childish. it looked petulent. he looked to be a sore loser. i don't think anybody in alabama wants to be associated with that. >> david jolly, put yourself in the shoes strategically speaking of mitch mcconnell. on the one hand he loses a senate seat in alabama. his margin with this certification it's 51/49. it's razor thin. on the other hand, roy moore is not going to be in washington next year as a leading member of the national republican party. is that a better outcome

strategically for mcconnell? >> of course. the best possible outcome is to have roy moore and the horse he rode in on a distant memory. the problem for republicans and for mitch mcconnell is there are more steve bannon crazy republican candidates right around the corner. steve, you know these races. michael grimm in new york who got out of prison who threatened to throw the reporter off the balcony. paul kneeland from the white, kelly ward in arizona who has suggested that because john mccain is sick he should resign and she should take his seat. the steve bannon wing of the republican party survives the defeat of roy moore, so roy moore is done in terms of national politics but this whole division within the republican party and the steve bannonism is still going to be chokehold around mitch mcconnell's neck going into 2018. >> ayesha, as a democrat, i'm curious how you think about that.

we were calling it the tea party a few years ago. establishment figures got knocked off in these republican primaries by candidates who couldn't win races the party's never supposed to lose. democrats looking ahead to 2018, looking ahead to the difficult senate map. is that a big part of the strategy strategically thinking? >> absolutely. they've been on a pathway to self-destruction, i believe, and that's what we're seeing playing out. i think the big thing for the democrats to take away from this is they need to trust black women. black women won this election. there was a knee-jerk reaction to want to deviate away from the core base of the party which is the beautiful multi-ethnic race of the party and figure out how the democrats go back and get those white guys in wisconsin who didn't show up for hillary clinton. what we see in alabama, what we saw in virginia and what the reality is as long as the democrats stay true to their values of inclusion of bringing all the people under the tent and to the table, they will win time and time again.

so i think the lesson to be learned is as we go out and fight the 201 battles, we need to make sure we do it the way the democrats know how to run the playbook. we need to bring black people, young people, latinos into the process. we will win every time and defeat all of the bigotry running rampant within the republican party. >> kyle, something you said a minute ago struck me. it may be this moment with roy moore refusing to concede. maybe sort of an aha moment for republicans in alabama. we don't need to go down this road again. i'm curious, roy moore is 70 years old. we've seen him in the past decades. he's been thrown off the state supreme court twice. he keeps coming back. he was on the brink of a senate seat. do you think there's a political future or is this the last chapter? >> i think he's done. he's going to have his core base of devout followers, but beyond that his -- stealing has always been his floor and his floor has

always been his ceiling. that's what really caught him in this election. if he had had a strong opponent, not luther strange, he would not have been in this race. if mitch mcconnell had not tried to get involved in this race and force luther strange on alabama republican voters in the primary and allowed someone like del marsh, our state senate majority leader to run and not blackballed campaign operatives who were working for other candidates, there might be another republican in the senate next week. and i think that is going to be something that a lot of people are going to remember here but as far as roy moore is concerned, look, he's already embarrassed alabama enough. a lot of republican voters two weeks ago voted for doug jones. this guy is through. any time he steps back up to the

plate people are going to say, remember that it's a democrat in the senate right now because of roy moore. we don't want to be associated with him ever again. >> david, what i'm hearing kyle say, i'm thinking back though over the last six or seven years, i feel around the country at different points we've heard versions of that, you know? >> sure. >> if only republicans, mike casso in the senate race in 2010. if only they hadn't gone with mourdock. not a loss. is there a point where pragmatism -- it seems to me like there's this anti-establishment energy that's unabated in this party for almost a decade now. >> this is the problem with the republican party right now. it's the angry base that has captured it. mitch mcconnell is right. listen, if you're not a good candidate, then you don't get to make policy. to the earlier comment, all of the energy, all of the energy right now is in the left.

the left cannot wait to vote in november of '18 and that left is a very multi-cultural issues. roy moore said god is in control. somebody said he didn't realize that tuesday night god was an african-american woman going into november of '18, republicans cannot hold a diverse constituency across the country. they're going to lose because of it. >> becoming a true i mean in politics, nothing motivates the base. kyle whitmire, ayesha moody and david jolly, thank you for joining all of us. president trump's feud with hillary clinton still going strong. we'll look at that straight ahead. this is "hardball" where the this is "hardball" where the action is. to activate my body release it, like it's supposed to. trulicity is not insulin. it comes in a once-weekly, truly easy-to-use pen.

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i'm melissa reyberger. in erie, pennsylvania, they're digging out from 65 inches of snowfall. 16 more inches to come over the weekend. a very cold new year's eve celebration. revelers can expect bomb sniffing dogs. apple apologizes for slowing down iphones. back to "hardball."

welcome back to "hardball." donald trump's latest feud with the magazine vanity fair. this morning he tweeted vanity fair, which looks like it is on its last leg, bending over backwards and apologizing for the minor hit they took at crooked hillary. she is beside herself in grieve a grief and begging for forgiveness. they were offering mock advice to hillary clinton including a line that maybe she should take up knitting. it's not clear exactly why the president weighed in on the controversy this morning but it certainly fits a pattern. he's feuded with actors, athletes, and the justice department. >> a lot of people are disappointed in the justice

department, including me. he came out with this horrible book and i said, who is this guy? his whole numbers are terrible. he's done terribly for the great people of arizona. i noticed that chuck schumer yesterday with fake tears. i was going to ask him who was his acting coach. we have a representative in congress who they say was here a long time ago. they call her pocahontas. >> you heard what he said yesterday to senator mccain. >> yeah, i know. i'll have to be careful because at some point i fight back. i'm being very nice. very nice. at some point i fight back. >> president trump also calls his own attorney general beleaguered. bob corker was a light weight and incompetent. he attacked the leadership ability of the mayor of san juan. football players are showing great disrespect. he called lavar ball an

ungrateful fool. after he attacked the president he called "saturday night live" not funny and really bad television. he said meryl streep is one of the most overrated actresses in hollywood. jason, maybe we tried to take maybe the big picture look at all of this. we're a year in. we weren't sure when donald trump was elected. in an interview he said i'm probably not going to tweet at all. safe to say, this has been institutionalized as part of this presidency. we can certainly look at his po poll numbers to say speaking this way or tweeting this way is negatively affecting his numbers. is there something in the formula. we look at the support he does have. >> right. >> it does seem connected somehow. there is something here in terms of the appeal that he does have to a certain type of voter, i guess. >> well, it's true. honestly, steve, all we have to do is go back to what trump was

saying when he was running for president last year. certain people could run down the street and shoot somebody in times square and they would still support him. so it doesn't matter if he tweeted all the time, doesn't matter if he tweeted nice things, doesn't matter if he tweeted mean things, 25, 35% will love donald trump no matter what he does. there are people in the country who tend to find the tweets distracting and disturbing. earlier this year when you had a lot of analysts saying, don't worry, it's part of a three dimensional chest. no, this is how he feels. this is his personal id on the computer. it's not to distract us on other policies, it's because i don't think he has anything else to do with his time. >> before he came along the eternal lamenta said i wish they would not be so stuffy. the formulaic statements.

it seems this year is the year i'm hearing the opposite la meant. i miss the boring prewritten statements. >> yeah. you know, everybody wishes babies could talk until they start, right? once children start you're like, wait, i don't want to keep answering these questions of a 2-year-old. remember, i'm old enough to remember when he was giving speeches every month. the problem with trump tweeting is not simply that he's saying mean things, they're often inaccurate, hostile, deliver information that is untrue, they attack other countries. the tweets don't build anything that we actually need in this country. one thing that's important to point out, these aren't feuds that we're talking about. a feud is golden state and the cavs. those are teams that are feuding. donald trump simply picks targets. he goes out with people who have never seen him.

>> yeah, bob corker has issues with him. lavar ball had nothing to do with trump and the president still attacked him. these are the ranting and rafings. president trump mocked out the weather. because it's cold outside writing in the east it could be the coldest new year's eve on record. perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old global warming that our country and not others was going to bundle up. >> what the president does on twitter is trolling, to essentially invoke the claimed -- i think that's what he's trying to do there. >> steve, to me it seems like this is another feud.

the president has a feud with science. in fact, in common sense and policy. i don't think most of the things president trump does are because he's trying to inspire when he speaks to that. look, whether or not you believe in global warming even though there's lots of scientists who say it's real, the issue is not about things getting hotter, it's about more erratic weather. it's about having summertime in the winter and the monitor doesn't seem to understand the basics. we want you to at least be smart and whitey if you're going to troll people, not sound like a fool. >> jason johnson, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. up next, trump and his fellow people stayed. what is your agenda for 2018.

trump plotting strategy next week at camp david. the question is you're watching "hardball."

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welcome back to "hardball." congressional republicans notch their first big legislative win in 2017 with the passage of their tax plan. with 2018 just a few days away now, the looming question is what should they tackle next. president trump will meet with house speaker paul ryan and minority mitch mcconnell to plan their agenda but the congressional leaders aren't on the same page where to go. on wednesday politico reported that they are at odds over entitlement reform writing ryan has detailed an ambitious effort to reshape medicare, medicaid and welfare programs the gop has targeted as right for reform. here's what mcconnell told reporters last week. >> the sensitivity of entitlements is such that you

almost have to have a bipartisan agreement in order to achieve a result. >> mcconnell is hoping congress will have better luck with an infrastructure package. the white house has indicated president trump may renew that push in 2018 although he's got his eye on obamacare. the president will need to talk that over with mcconnell. he said the senate is moving on from health care. let's bring in the "hardball" roundtable, best mui, katheryn rampell and nick confocoey. we know -- >> yeah. >> donald trump said i'm not going to touch this. mitch mcconnell is saying that's a third rail. let's give. >> democrats aren't going to touch that in any way.

entitlement reform is likely to go forward in any meaningful way. the infrastructure bill perhaps should have been done last year when he could have brought forward some. a year later with so much bad blood between democrats and the white house, they're not going to help with that. republicans are not likely to say, yeah, let's go throw billions of dollars into roads and bridges. plus that means it blew a whole lot of money into the deficit. there's not a whole lot of money left over. >> it becomes a psychological question for republican lawmakers. election year, mid term year. if they're looking at the mid terms and saying, geez, this isn't looking good. maybe it's throw caution to the wind. democrats passing obamacare in 2010 knowing it wasn't polling

too well. if they think it's salvageable, the mid terms a good political calculation. >> if paul ryan is a fatalist maybe he will say it's time to, yes, make my fantasy come true, not just tax cuts but entitlement reform. i'm into the optimistic that these pie in the sky types of proposals will get through. there are so many time sensitive issues that republicans or congress in general have to deal with in the next couple of months. they have to actually fund to the government because that's coming up again. they only temporarily funded it through january. they have to deal with the debt ceiling. they have to deal with daca. they have to deal with chip which was again only temporarily funded. all of that is going to tie up a lot of political capital. it's hard to imagine them having the room to run with any of these other kinds of proposals which beth mentioned have their own problems. >> nick, when you think back to tax reform, so much had to line up for republicans to get that through. there is a sense of urgency. we have to get something.

we have failed everywhere else. there is a lot of consensus in issues on taxes. can you psy anything else that's going to get the sports merging together. >> all of the above, in fact. >> they just passed an historically popular tax bill. i have the playbook for tax reform. the playbook is draft the bill in secret, push it out at the last minute, do it quickly, call it something else. let's say they're going to save med case where you kind of get the goalkeeper madder and score keeper madder. >> can you do something on medicare? >> small changing the growth or change in cpi on social security benefits. they can do all kinds of things. the goal is to slowly change the goalposts. >> i disagree. i think taxes are a completely

different ballpark from entitlement reform because voters don't generally turn out at the polls or show up at town halls when it comes to taxes. the very devoted ones who care about taxes like myself, but medicare, that's completely different. you threaten to change funding for medicare. that will mobilize a lot of people. >> i get the sense that listening to republicans, i don't know if they're correct in terms of their calculation. i do get the sense that they again u wgenuinely feel it willt another burst of growth. they'll look up and say things are good. i get the sense they do think the politics are going to change. >> that's the only thing that they've got. they have to believe that because everything is looking so bad for them right now going into the mid terms in terms of the right track, wrong track, polling. the country is very unhappy with the direction of the country

right now. even with the great economy, even with it booming, the stock market booming, almost complete unemployment. we have a very unhappy population of people who do not want to see the policies continue. the only way the republicans can hope to hang onto the majority is say look at what we've done. stick with us. the economy is strong. we did put the money back in your paycheck as you said. these are policies that people can get behind. maybe we can make some reforms around the edges and put money back in the economy. to stay with us, we're the responsible party whether you like trump or not. >> starting to have flashbacks, 1994, bill clinton. they that maybe that wouldn't have it that way. the roundtable is sticking with us. democrats feeling emboldened heading into 2018. they hope a wave election is coming but are they relying too much on anti-trump sentiment? you're watching "hardball." thr'.

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a program note for you. tomorrow you can catch a special edition of "hardball" with chris matthews. chris will be taking a look back at some of the biggest stories of 2017 from the russia investigation to president trump's tumultuous investigation with his own party. that is tomorrow night, 7:00 p.m. right here on msnbc. we'll be right back. and call 844-234-2424.

welcome back to "hardball." democrats are feeling emboldened as they head into 2018, aiming to take back both the house and maybe even the senate from

republicans. nbc news reports that in every midterm election since the civil war, the president's party has lost on average 32 seats in the house and two in the senate. next year's battles, democrats need 24 seats to flip the house, and two to take back the senate. an economist poll out yesterday shows democrats with an 8-point lead over republicans in a generic congressional ballot, another sign of hope for democrats. the president's approval rating which stands at 38%. will 2018 usher in a democratic wave? i'm back here with the roundtable. nick, all these factors we're trained to look at, the approval rating, the generic ballot, the fact that republicans run everything, the other party usually tends to do well. if you're looking for a glimmer of hope that it's not going to be that bad, where's the place to look? the economy is improving, stock market is up? all those things are positive, i think it's very different. obviously the president being a dead weight for his party is a big deal.

if people are saying that the economy is going well, jobs are improving, i think that is very helpful to the republicans. >> katherine, that's one of the mysteries of this presidency. oddities at least. if you look at the public's assessment of the economy, you'd normally expect the president and his party to be faring better in polling. >> these are not normal times, right? there's the trump factor. trump is different from every other president. trump has been surrounded by scandal after scandal after scandal. by crazy tweets. by all sorts of other distractions that would maybe make the economy not the most salient factor in how people judge how well the country is doing and how well they assess the presidency. >> beth, something i picked up on talking to republicans, we talk about motivation, who's going to turn up and vote. we see the democratic base very motivated. republicans are telling me their folks are motivated by trump. if you don't have his name on the ballot, the party label's not doing it for them. >> you could make that argument given what we saw happen in alabama and virginia and the

other races in 2017. his name was not on the ballot, and they did poorly or less well than they could have. so that's an argument that trump supporters are going to make. the other hand, this really has all come down to a referendum on trump. whether he's on the ballot or not. everybody is so transfixed with this presidency for good or bad. and frankly exhausted by it in a lot of ways. even as you said with the economy so strong, with unemployment looking fantastic, with basically all the facts on the ground, should be in support of this president. they're just not. pollsters have never seen this before. we're getting to the point now where it is a referendum on trump. not the way the democrats ought to run but that's where people's minds are and their voting hearts, that's why democrats are motive ramotivated. the people he needs to pull those congressional republicans over the transom may not be there. >> that's where things look heading into 2018. the last two presidents whose parties lost the house in their

first midterms, clinton and obama, went on to win re-election. keep that in mind. up next, three scoops you'll be talking about tomorrow. you're watchi ining "hardball." i mean wish i had time to take care of my portfolio, but.. well, what are you doing tomorrow -10am? staff meeting. noon?

eating. 3:45? uh, compliance training. 6:30? sam's baseball practice. 8:30? tai chi. yeah, so sounds relaxing. alright, 9:53? i usually make their lunches then, and i have a little vegan so wow, you are busy. wouldn't it be great if you had investments that worked as hard as you do? yeah. introducing essential portfolios. the automated investing solution that lets you focus on your life. ...from godaddy! in fact, 68% of people who have built their... ...website using gocentral, did it in under an hour, and you can too. build a better website - in under an hour. with gocentral from godaddy.

and we are back with the "hardball" roundtable. beth, tell me something i don't know. >> did you know that donald trump made a very noteworthy cameo on "sex and the city" season 2. i have been rewatching the

series to take my mind off of politics and lo and behold, last night i stumble upon donald trump in "sex and the city" sitting at a bar with samantha's date, he says "i'll see you back at trump tower." he evidently threw that line in, he wasn't supposed to have a line at all, but he wanted to promote trump tower and so he did. he was in "sex and the city." >> kick it away. >> along with other films. so i think in the same poll you cited earlier, it actually found that less than half of republicans expect trump to win re-election in 2020. also less than half of republicans think trump is honest. so there you go. >> only six people have served for multiple terms as house speaker without going consecutively. if dems retake the house, speaker pelosi could be the seventh one to do it. >> a little bit of history potentially. thank you to beth fuhey, katherine lapell, nick consori. ann, the executive producer of

"hardball" is retiring, this is her final show. i know i speak for the entire "hardball" staff when i say, i have seen firsthand how much passion, insight, how much fun she brings to this program. she is one of the very best people i have met in this business, and thank you for everything, we wish you all the very best. that is "hardball" for now. thank you for being with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. tonight on "all in." >> the country is really -- it's a big, big beautiful ship we're turning around. >> president trump's hard sell. >> we're in a very special period of time. it's going to be even mere so. >> how donald trump has accomplished less than he wants you to know. how a year of resistance is actually working. then two former watergate prosecutors on the most incriminating discoveries from the russia investigation. >> in fact, when i decided to just do it, i said to myself, i said, you know -- this russia thing. >> and the eerie parallels to th